by Peter Turchin; John Zada
Among historians there is a tiny subset who write, or have written about, cyclical patterns in human history—especially where the rise and fall of societies is concerned. Among the better known is Arnold Toynbee and his 12-volume work, A Study of History, which traces the development and decay of various civilizations in the historical record. And though the subject of societal collapse is more top of mind today than in the past, owing to the worrying state of the world, seldom do discussions around it place the phenomenon in a wider historical context. Indeed, the pursuit by cyclical pattern historians of what they might call “a science of history” is often deemed impossible by academics.
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